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Model Predicts Over in Alabama-Texas Tech Clash
23 Mar
Summary
- Model predicts over 164.5 points in the Alabama-Texas Tech game.
- Alabama ranks fourth in adjusted tempo; Texas Tech ranks 253rd.
- Both offenses are efficient, with four players projected to score double-digits.
The No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide will face the No. 5 Texas Tech Red Raiders in a highly anticipated second-round NCAA Tournament game on Sunday, March 23, 2026. Alabama, with a 24-9 season record, enters the contest following a 90-70 victory over Hofstra. Texas Tech, now 23-10, advanced with a 91-71 win against Akron.
Scheduled for 9:45 p.m. ET at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Florida, the game's odds indicate a tight contest. While Alabama opened as 1.5-point favorites, Texas Tech is now the slight favorite by the same margin. SportsLine's projection model, which has a strong track record in college basketball picks, simulated the game 10,000 times.
The model's simulation strongly suggests the over on the 164.5 total points will hit. This prediction accounts for a tempo clash, with Alabama's offense operating at a much faster pace than Texas Tech's. However, both teams demonstrate remarkable offensive efficiency, ranking among the nation's best.
Offensive efficiency is a key factor, with Alabama ranking third nationally and Texas Tech tenth in adjusted offensive efficiency. Both teams surpassed 90 points in their opening-round games. The model anticipates four players from each team will score in double figures, projecting an average of 171 combined points, with the over hitting in 60% of simulations.
